October 31, 2009

by Michael Patrick Leahy

UPDATE

2:05 pm

Scozzafava Spokesperson Gracious in Defeat, Salutes Tea Party Activists and Conservative Blogosphere

UPDATE

12:05 pm

In an exclusive interview with The TCOT Report, Steven Greenberg of the Siena Research Institute, which conducted and released today's Siena Poll, commented on Scozzafava's withdrawal from the race.

"I am not going to conjecture on where Scozzafava voters will go. We did not ask the question of Scozzafava voters who their second choice was. We did, however, ask them to rate the other two candidates in terms of their favorable-unfavorable opinion of them. We found that among current Scozzafava voters Hoffman had a 15% favorable, 57% unfavorable rating, while the Democrat Owens had a 19% favorable, 50% unfavorable rating. So the two candidates rated about the same, with a slight edge to Owens."

Greenberg did not rule out the possibility that the Siena Research Institute might conduct and release another poll before election day next Tuesday.

"Anything is possible," he said.

UPDATE

11:45 am

Republican County Chairmen Start Lining Up Behind Hoffman

"If Dede is not in the race and the only two people in the race are Hoffman and Owens, we will definitely support Hoffman."
Oneida County Republican County Chairman George Joseph
11:26 am EDT today

"In light of the fact that the Republican candidate in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District in New York has withdrawn, and since I was one of the original Republicans seeking the nomination, I will be supporting Doug Hoffman
in his bid for the 23rd Congressional District seat."
Paul Maroun, Republican member of the Franklin County Legislature
and the leading conservative candidate for the Republican nomination that went to Dede Scozzafava on July 22.
11:45 am

"I am thrilled. I will be supporting Doug Hoffman and I am sure my Fulton constituents who made all the phone calls to me saying they are supporting Doug Hoffman will continue to support him."
Susan McNeil, Fulton County Republican County Chairman
12:10 pm

"I feel that Dede did the right thing in withdrawing and it shows tremendous character on her part. We need to make sure we don’t have another vote for Nancy Pelosi. I'm going to vote for Doug Hoffman because sending him to Washington is a vote against Nancy Pelosi."
Jim Ellis Franklin County Republican County Party Chairman
2:15 pm

"I've been calling our officers of our local Lewis County Republican Party since 5 o clock today, and at this point the encouragement I'm getting from the executive committee and members of the county committe is to support Hoffman."

"What Dede Scozzafava did withdrawing from the race makes her a patriot in my eyes. I think she's a special person in the Republican community for what she did bringing the Republican Party together."
Sam Villanti, Lewis County Republican County Party Chairman
7:00 pm

UPDATE

10:50 am

Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee for Congress in the NY 23 special election dropped out from the race less than an hour after the new Siena Poll showed that she could not win. Her statement and the related Politico story can be found here.

ORIGINAL STORY

10:00 am

The Siena Poll released just now called the NY 23 Congressional race too close to call. The survey of voters taken over the three day period October 27 to October 29 showed a horse race between the Conservative Doug Hoffman and the Democrat Bill Owens. Scozzafava was far behind in third.

Owens had 36%, Hoffman had 35% in a statistical dead heat, and Scozzafava lagged far behind at 20%.

The results sounded the death knell for the struggling Scozzafava campaign.

The full details of the poll can be found here.

All the momentum of the race is with Hoffman. In the 16 days since the last Siena Poll was released on October 15, he has gained 12%, from 23% to 35%, while Scozzafava has lost 9%, dropping from 29% to 20%. Democrat Owens has remained relatively steady, increasing 3% from 33% to 36%.

Historically, Democratic candidates have polled at around 37%, so the Siena Poll numbers for Owens are consistent with that history.

The question on everyone's mind now is this: Will Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee who secured the nomination in a process that was tainted by a breach of trust, do the right thing and drop out of the race? Such an action would guarantee a victory for Hoffman and begin to re-establish her reputation within the Republican Party.



The results of today's Siena Poll confirm the Research 2000 Poll released earlier this week, which showed Hoffman and Owens in a dead heat (33% for Owens, 32% for Hoffman), with Scozzafava trailing badly.

Events have moved fast in this campaign, as Scozzafava has continued to lose support from Republicans, while Hoffman's list of endorsements has grown rapidly.

Latest to join the long list of Hoffman supporters is former Republican Governor George Pataki, and the Republican mayor of Plattsburgh, New York. Early support from Senator Fred Thompson and the Club for Growth has been strengthened by endorsements from Presidential contenders Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. Numerous icons of the conservative movement, including former Presidential candidate Steve Forbes and South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint have also endorsed Hoffman.

Late last week, the Republican National Congressional Committee signaled their abandonment of Scozzafava, when chair Pete Sessions declared that the NRCC would welcome Hoffman with open arms into the Republican caucus. Then RNC Chair Michael Steel added to Scozzafava's misery when he publicly stated that the RNC would be pleased with either a Hoffman or Scozzafava victory.

Newt Gingrich remains the lone Republican voice supporting Scozzafava, and he has been pilloried for standing by her. Many have questioned his integrity for his repetition of false claims that Scozzafava had "unanimous" support of the 11 county chairs in the district. On Thursday, in a major embarassement, Gingrich was forced to remove a false claim from his website that Scozzafava had received unanimous support at all four regional candidate meetings when in fact she had support at only one of the four meetings.

The race has drawn national attention, with the Democrats pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the Owens Campaign. Scozzafava has the support of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, though not the RNC. Hoffman has the support of the Club for Growth and former Senator Fred Thompson. The October 15 Siena Poll showed Democrat Bill Owens Leading Republican RINO Dede Scozzafava by 4 and Conservative Doug Hoffman by 10.


The associated press release from Siena on the October 15 poll can be found here.



In the October 1 poll, Dede Scozzafava had a seven point lead over Owens, 35-28, with Hoffman in third place at 16.

The race has drawn national attention, with the Democrats pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the Owens Campaign. Scozzafava has the support of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, though not the RNC. Hoffman has the support of the Club for Growth and former Senator Fred Thompson.

The special election will be held this coming Tuesday, November 3, 2009.



Michael Patrick Leahy is the Publisher of The TCOT Report and the author of Rules for Conservative Radicals

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